🔗 Share this article A Prediction Market User Earned $436,000 from Bets Predicting Maduro's Downfall. In this photo illustration, a Polymarket logo is seen displayed on a smartphone. An individual profited close to $500,000 by predicting the removal of the Venezuelan leader just before it was officially announced, leading to inquiries about whether someone profited from non-public details of American actions. Changing Odds in Wagers Predictions made on the forecasting site, a crypto-powered platform, that Nicolás Maduro would be no longer in control by the end of January rose in the time leading up to President Donald Trump declared on January 3rd that the president had been seized. One account, which became a member recently and made four bets, all on political events in Venezuela, earned over $436,000 from a modest bet of $32,537. Who placed the bet is a mystery. This unidentified trader had only a string of letters and numbers for identification. Probability Spikes Before News Break Platform data shows that participants estimated the likelihood of Maduro's exit at just under 7% in the midday period of the Friday before the event. Yet these probabilities had increased to eleven percent by shortly before midnight and spiked dramatically in the first hours of January 3rd, suggesting a sharp shift in market sentiment immediately prior to the social media post was made. "This particular bet has all the signs of a trade based on inside information," said a financial reform advocate. Several of other traders also profited large payouts from predicting the capture. Political Attention Grows Some lawmakers are growing concerned. Proposed legislation put forward on Monday aims to prohibit government employees from making trades on forecasting platforms if they have "confidential government knowledge" related to a wager. Industry Context Prediction markets have grown significantly in the past few years, with users able to wager on everything from sports to political events. Prediction markets were examined under the Biden administration. However it has received a warmer welcome during the Trump presidency. Using confidential knowledge is a crime in the stock market, but there are less oversight in the event betting arena. A spokesperson for another major platform said their site "strictly forbids trading on insider information of any form."